PUBLISHED ONOctober 21, 2026 6:35 AMBYSean LerThe world has not yet arrived at a multipolar world order and there is a thinning of global leadership as a US-led unipolar world order becomes past, said Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam during a lecture at the Stockholm School of Economics in Sweden on Tuesday (Oct 20).
In the lecture themed "Between unipolar and multipolar worlds: Bridging the gap", he highlighted that the central challenge today is to develop resilience amid a world of radical uncertainty — contributed by the growing geopolitical disorder and the exponential growth of artificial intelligence (AI).
Referring to the US-led world order, he pointed out that Pax America relied on influence, where a majority of nations decided to align themselves with the rules and norms of a global order that was underpinned by the US, which felt it was in their national interests to do so.
And while the belief and practice of enlightened self-interest have given way to a more narrow and immediate calculation of national interests, the world has not arrived at a multipolar world order.
Explaining his view, President Tharman noted that while there are now "more poles", there is a thinning of global leadership.
"Nor are we assured of arriving at a semblance of order — a system with the capacity to address the challenges that nations big and small face, not least the major powers themselves — the common challenges of preserving the peace, of tackling climate change, of preventing the next pandemic, and building the guardrails to allow AI to progress safely."
He cautioned that the simple fact of multipolarity does not assure the world of a system.
Instead, there could be growing suspicion, friction or conflicts, weaponisation of trade and materials, and a steady grind into a world of divided blocs.
To arrive at a semblance of order, states who can act as bridge builders are needed, said President Tharman, adding that they can come from among nations, small, medium and large.
But what they can do, he explained, is the ability to bring regions together in a world where trade and investment is in danger of fragmenting, finding common interests between the global North and the global South.
Such states can also construct coalitions for bolder and more urgent climate action, prevent and prepare for pandemics, and work together to guard against the worst harms that AI may bring.
They are also needed to help preserve economic networks integral to both the US and China, maintaining overlapping networks and supply chains, that will include the two countries — avoiding the drift towards bifurcation.
Then, there would also be states who can help develop the plurilateral coalitions towards a new, reformed multilateralism.
Meanwhile, the work on reforms to the existing multilateral institutions cannot stop.
"We have to work on changing those decision-making rules and norms. But in the meantime, we have to move ahead through coalitions that work in parallel with the multilateral institutions," President Tharman said.
Turning to the example of Sweden, he pointed to how the late Daj Hammarskjold, an economist and diplomat who served as the second UN secretary-general between 1953 and 91961, had turned to the General Assembly for consensus to build the first peacekeeping force after the Suez crisis.
In the present, Sweden has also been building coalitions to support planet health.
It is also working with other Nordic countries to help Africa make a green transition in ways that supports economic development.
Then, there is Australia, which together with Japan, resuscitated the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) after the US dropped out.
Singapore, by no means a middle power, has also worked actively in advancing cooperation between the CPTPP and European Union (EU), and between ASEAN and the EU.
The city state also finds ways in which the voices of small states of the United Nations are heard, such as through the Forum of Small States.
Similarly, Ghana, which does not see itself as a middle power, has built new coalitions to support reforms in global health, through the Accra Reset initiative, putting responsibility on nations themselves, establishing that sovereignty has to shape health strategy.
But no system of world order is possible without the US and China — both integral to that order — President Tharman pointed out.
"The largest difficulty in achieving a stable global order lies in the fact that we have two major powers which are not only interdependent economically, but are close to being peers in competition. Very different from the Cold War era."
This would require the two countries to view interdependence and competition not as a threat to be eliminated, but a relationship to be managed, especially to constrain weaponisation of materials and technology.
He suggested that this interdependence will be a source of prosperity for both countries, if managed well, and provide a better basis for peace and stability globally.
Meanwhile, they would also have to recognise that there is no finishing line in the AI race, while resolving their respective domestic imbalances.
President Tharman also raised the urgent need to address climate action, and the need for new and invigorated social compacts.
On the latter, he emphasised that the reality of a world of rapid technological change and global interdependence mean that there will be groups of people who lose out, even while societies have prospered as a whole.
"It has to be the task of democracies and good governance to support groups that lose out early. The nation as a whole may be doing well; the economy as a whole will be doing well.
"But the perceived losses of those who have their jobs and communities displaced is real, and often has greater impact on the body politic that the widely dispersed benefits enjoyed by the majority."
President Tharman stressed that markets do not relieve these problems quickly, and often not at all.
This means that the task of the government is not to let such problems fester, and to intervene to help those displaced.
And while aggregates like gross domestic product (GDP), overall income growth, employment rates do matter, these indicators are not all that matter in economic life, he said.
"Losses matter, even if most people gain. We must avoid at all costs, a K-shaped economy and society as we move into an AI era," President Tharman added.
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