SINGAPORE — There is a high risk of severe haze blanketing the region in the second half of the year, due to the return of El Nino, as well as increased deforestation spurred by biofuel demand.
The warming El Nino climate phenomenon is expected to create a longer and stronger dry season at a time when fire readiness could be compromised by economic uncertainty and budget pressures, said the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) in its annual haze outlook report.
This is the second time since its annual outlooks began in 2019 that the think-tank has put out a red alert.
The first was in 2023, also an El Nino year when Singapore experienced haze over a weekend in October.
El Nino refers to the warming of the sea surface over the eastern Pacific, leading to hotter and drier weather over the region.
Scientists predict that this cycle could be a super El Nino, putting 2026 and 2027 on track for exceptionally sizzling years.
At the same time, another climate phenomenon called the positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to develop in July or August.
An Indian Ocean Dipole is similar to El Nino but develops in the equatorial Indian Ocean.
An El Nino and a potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole could prolong and intensify Singapore’s dry season in the second half of the year and extend it into October, the National Environment Agency and Singapore’s weatherman has said.
According to the Asean Specialised Meteorological Centre’s website, El Nino conditions are already present in the region, and are set to strengthen from August to September.
Past severe haze events such as the crises of 2015 and 1997 also coincided with a super El Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
In 2015, Singapore’s skyline disappeared into a thick cloud of grey for about two months and schools were shut down as air quality hit hazardous levels.
Even before El Nino entered the equation in 2026, forest fires and hotspots had persisted in parts of Indonesia and Johor early this year.
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Singapore faced several weeks of hazy conditions during that period due to wildfires in Johor, including a peatland fire covering 200 hectares across Kota Tinggi and Pengerang.
The region’s dry season traditionally falls between June and September, during the south-west monsoon.
Hotter and drier conditions cause vegetation, peatland and plantations to be more flammable, and fires that start from land-clearing or burning waste can spread faster.
Peatland fires can smoulder underground for weeks, further complicating firefighting efforts.
While weather conditions can exacerbate fire and haze, the root causes boil down to how agricultural land is managed, fire preparedness and the political commitment to prevent transboundary haze.
The current energy crisis and higher costs of agricultural components like fertiliser may spur unsustainable land-clearing practices among some producers.
“The haze is not simply an environmental problem. The challenge is to ensure that sustainable practices are maintained across entire supply chains, including by small and medium-sized enterprises that may be operating under tighter economic pressures,” noted Simon Tay, SIIA’s chairman.
Khor Yu-Leng, SIIA’s associate director, added: “It will take months for the fertiliser and fuel price shocks caused by the Strait of Hormuz disruptions to subside. Producers of food crops like fruit and vegetables are facing greater difficulties.”
She said the push for biofuel — fuel made by pressing oil out of crops, for example — in the region is rising.
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From July 1, Indonesia has a mandate to have vehicles refuelled with a blend of 50 per cent biodiesel from palm oil, and conventional diesel.
Growers will need to meet demands for both food and fuel, increasing the risk that some might resort to expanding plantations using unsustainable methods and slash-and-burn, said the SIIA report.
Nearly a fifth of the deforestation in 2025 was due to the clearing of land for food and bioenergy crops.
Reduced resources for firefighting is another challenge.
The Straits Times reported in April that budgets for 2026 in fire-prone regions including Riau and parts of Kalimantan have already been exhausted following a surge in land and forest fires.
Budgets for fire management could also be under pressure amid cuts to public spending.
Politically, 2026 will be the first high-risk dry season faced by the Prabowo administration in Indonesia.
Former president Joko Widodo viewed haze as an embarrassment for the country’s international relations and chaired national coordination meetings on the issue.
In 2025, President Prabowo Subianto launched a new inter-agency desk to strengthen responses to fires, and this entity was reactivated in mid-June 2026, ahead of the upcoming dry season.
“President Prabowo has been pushing for greater oversight of the country’s land-use sectors, investigating alleged environmental violations by companies and centralising control of commodity exports. While this has made some investors wary, tighter governance could have positive outcomes for haze prevention,” said the report.
The report noted that governments, companies and communities will be significantly stress-tested in fire prevention and proper land management amid economic uncertainty and budget pressures.
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This article was first published in The Straits Times. Permission required for reproduction.
