Core inflation rises to 1.4% in February, import cost pressures likely to pick up: MAS, MTI

Singapore's core inflation rose to 1.4 per cent year-on-year in February, up from 1.0 per cent in January, said the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) in a press release on Monday (March 23). 

February's core inflation is the highest since 1.7 per cent was recorded in December 2024. 

Core inflation was particularly boosted by higher inflation in services, food, and retail and other goods, partly reflecting seasonal effects associated with the Chinese New Year in February, said MAS and MTI.

On a month-on-month basis, core prices increased by 0.5 per cent in February.

Separately, overall inflation — which excludes all non-consumption expenditures such as purchases of houses, shares and other financial assets — fell to 1.2 per cent year-on-year in February from 1.4 per cent, on the back of lower accommodation and private transport inflation that more than offset higher core inflation. 

Sector-wise, MAS and MTI noted that accommodation inflation eased from 1.9 per cent in January to 0.3 per cent in February, due to a smaller increase in the cost of housing maintenance and repairs.

Private transport, and electricity and gas inflation also declined slightly in February due to lower petrol and electricity prices that month.

However, MTI and MAS highlighted an increase in food inflation, which rose to 1.6 per cent in February as prices of non-cooked food and food services rose at a quicker pace.

Data from SingStat also showed that prices for fish and other seafood rose by 7.4 per cent year-on-year.

Services inflation also showed an increase from 1.5 per cent in January to 2.0 per cent in February due to higher airfares and increased holiday expenses.

Near-term outlook

Looking ahead, MAS and MTI said Singapore's import cost pressures are likely to pick up in the near term.

In particular, they noted that global energy prices have risen significantly in recent weeks due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. 

On the domestic front, the authorities also expect unit labour cost growth to edge higher this year, although the extent of the pick-up will be dampened by sustained productivity growth. 

Meanwhile, they expect private consumption demand to remain steady amid continued real wage increases. 

Core inflation and overall inflation are currently projected to average between 1.0 to 2.0 per cent in 2026, and MAS will provide an update to the inflation outlook in the April monetary policy statement after assessing recent developments. 

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