Oil at one-week low as US and Iran pause attack; supply tension underpins

Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday (July 28), hovering around one-week lows amid hopes for a resolution in the US-Iran war, while subdued flow through the Strait of Hormuz and further supply disruption risks underpinned the market.

Brent crude futures were down 50 cents, or 0.57 per cent, at US$87.86 (S$113) by 6.10am GMT (2.10pm SGT). US West Texas Intermediate crude was at US$82.24 a barrel, down 37 cents, or 0.45 per cent.

Both contracts slid around eight per cent in the prior session and hit their lowest since July 20 after the US abruptly suspended a campaign of air strikes against Iran over the weekend.

US President Donald Trump said on Monday Washington was having "good talks" with Iran and that there was the chance of a resolution. 

However, he said US strikes would resume if negotiations failed while Iran issued similar comments about retaliation.

"For now, the relief that an off-ramp has been found has taken the heat out of prices and eased concerns around Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. However, the situation remains highly fluid," IG analyst Tony Sycamore said in a client note.

Afrah al-Zouba, the foreign minister-designate of Yemen's internationally recognised Saudi-backed government, said Yemen-based Houthi fighters aimed to replicate Iran's control of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at Bab el-Mandeb.

"Whether the Houthis have the military capacity to enforce a comprehensive blockade is questionable, especially given that the Saudis will attack them relentlessly. Still, there is no doubt that traffic has dropped off significantly in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz," Marex analyst Edward Meir said.

"A key reason prices are not even higher than they are right now is the demand destruction that is taking place, especially in Asia," Meir said.

Also weighing on oil prices was news the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea terminal on the Russian coast had resumed oil loadings, after a one-week stoppage following Ukrainian drone attacks.

Still, analysts warned the risks to supply disruptions spreading to the Red Sea remain elevated after Saudi Arabia said it shot down drones aimed at petroleum targets, including in Riyadh. 

It said Iran-backed armed groups had launched the weapons from Iraq, and it reserved the right to respond.

Separately, Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen said they had targeted the East-West Pipeline carrying oil to Saudi Arabia's main Red Sea port of Yanbu in retaliation for Saudi drone incursions.

Barclays analysts said in a note on Monday "flows through the strait remain subdued". 

They said, in the week ended July 24, crude oil and refined product net exports through the strait averaged 2.9 million barrels a day compared with 5.9 million in the previous week.

Elsewhere, US crude oil stockpiles likely fell last week alongside gasoline, while distillate stocks likely rose, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. 

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